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Todd Hirsch Open House, ATB Entrepreneur Centre – Update on the State of Alberta Economy, Dec. 9, 2016
Todd Hirsch Open House
We’re putting on the coffee…
Please come and join Todd to chit chat about anything you’d like (economics related, of course).
We hold these coffee chats at Calgary’s Entrepreneur Centre (almost) every month (when Todd is not out of town speaking). It’s your chance to bring up questions or issues that have been on your mind.
Grad school friends when the while about the economy it’s a big topic on everyone’s mind right now in Alberta. There’s no question that having service struggled through two years of recession. The question that’s on everyone’s mind is what comes next for a further twenty seventeen really the question Are things going to prove or turnaround and the answer to that Israel we say away with being a communist good.
It’s a bit complicated when we think of what I guess triggered the recession for over there was only really one way in on a change and that was the oil prices went from one hundred seven dollars a barrel down to twenty seven dollars a barrel at the beginning of this year and then having recovered modest but certainly struggling to you know get above fifty or stay above fifty. So it’s a challenging price environment for producers promise and that has been the whole reason.
In fact while it is fun to these two sectors years. Tracking the drop in oil price. I think it’s a stark reminder of how dependent this problem still is on one simple commodity. But talk a little bit about you know do we need to diversify or how does that happen. You know a little bit but of course we are we remain very dependent on the petroleum crude oil to kill. So twenty fifteen twenty sixteen two consecutive years of contraction and over. This economy.
You have to go all the way back to the one nine hundred eighty S. find a situation that is as serious as this in almost every respect the way you look at the data and then teach what works more hours and I think we will in fact get to a situation where it’s as bad as the T.V. spot for a lot of people if you were the work rate the arrow or your kids are without work or you’re watching your friends loose or jobs. Absolutely. Meals as bad as the 1980’s.
Even though statistically it may not be but when it comes to the job market in the labor market that is where people actually connect with what a recession means for them first. So I guess there’s two questions. How do we reach the bottom in the energy sector and how do we reach the bottom. You know for this economy for the first question or for the answer to that first question I would say that the worst of the price downturn we believe is close behind us so we don’t think we’re going to test the oil at twenty seven or thirty years the U.S. benchmark price again not in this cycle. Anyway I mean that who knows in the future but we do think the oil prices are likely to remain in this forty maybe fifty five dollars range.
That said we have to recognize anything is possible. Anything could happen. Two years ago I would not have said it was likely that oil was just thirty dollars a barrel but it. So we have to always keep in mind that you know anything could happen a year from now or even by six months from now we could see oil at thirty dollars we could see that eighty dollars. I don’t think those scenarios are very likely Instead our analysis suggests that we’re going to see these prices continue to trade trade between about forty five maybe fifty five dollars a barrel. And they are thinking and I’m not I’m not an energy economy so it’s not my area of expertise I collect my information from other smart people around me but in our estimation OPEC does not become as morning to factor going forward as the U.S. shale oil or oil.
So although OPEC if they decided once again that they don’t that they want to flood the market with well they could push prices back lower hasn’t worked out really great for them and in fact I think that’s one of the reasons why OPEC has decided to agree to. Some supply because they too suffer with thirty dollar oil going forward I think the more limiting here the more important factor is the U.S. shale oil production and that doesn’t change. I mean OPEC gets a bit unpredictable and depending on who’s giving a speech on any given day agreements come in agreements go with OPEC. But what doesn’t change is that U.S. shale oil production and that in fact is what I think will limit oil prices on the upside and that’s why they’ll struggle any time they get above fifty fifty five dollars a lot of that shale oil comes on the market.
So we think that’s the environment we’re going to be looking at here for at least the next few years in Alberta is probably a coward oil prices at around that fifty or fifty five dollars range. I mean where they’re at right now. So that’s I guess the good news and bad news is the good news is fifty dollars oil is better than twenty seven dollars oil are the bad news is fifty dollar oil for a lot of producers in this province that’s still a challenge to price. Now we’re starting to see some green shoots we’re starting to see some optimism come back very gradually into the energy sector we saw some of this announcement yesterday some positive signs that
they’re going to resume some bits of their investment in their projects and that’s positive. But going forward. I don’t think we can count on the energy sector in this province to be that really super strong driving force in growth and that’s what we all sort of got used to between twenty ten and two thousand and fourteen when this province was growing at four or four and a half percent real G.D.P. every year and that’s because this the energy sector and the piles of investment into oil sands projects and conventional projects. That’s what was driving all of the activity. Going forward with oil. Maybe more permanently at around forty five to fifty five.
I think we can. No I don’t think we can expect the energy sector to be that strong driving force. It will still be there. It will still operate the better equipped with the better position companies will will operate profitably. But we’re not going to see a lot of investment come back we’re not going to see a lot of employment come back and that is in fact what’s going to sort of pull growth backing up early twenty’s. So in other words we’re expecting the energy sector the petroleum sector in twenty seventeen to stabilize with oil around fifty dollars stable is better than two years of a contraction. But it doesn’t yet bring back growth. Now a lot of people in this province are going to be waiting and watching course when when this employment sometime in the energy sector. So that’s the first question have we reached the bottom of the petroleum sector I think we’ve seen the very worst of it stable will be the new word for twenty seventeen and maybe with some modest growth from twenty thousand and be on. However when we look at Albertus macro economy and when we look at the labor market ticket here is where I don’t think we have quite reached the bottom yet. And this is the part of the chap that I don’t like talking about because it is around the job market where people do become very emotional vested in what’s going on because obviously people are concerned about jobs jobs for themselves opportunities again for their kids or their neighbors. Now if the current president were sitting at nine percent unemployment in Alberta ten point three percent in this city that is the highest since the early one nine hundred ninety S. and Calgary now has the dubious honor highest unemployment rate of any major Canadian city. This is not a scar used to being in that certainly not one we like being in but the reality is there are tens of thousands of people right now with no jobs and if you pile on top of that the people who are technically employed but there may be employed part time. There may be employed doing some contract. Work. It’s not permanent. It’s not full time when you pile on top of that people who are perhaps underemployed. They’d like to be working more hours or better pay then of course it’s not just ten point three percent. It’s probably closer to twenty percent of health care. It’s rather without work altogether or they’re struggling underemployed. So when you start to think about that. I mean that’s a fifth of Calgarians and it’s no wonder that that the mood in the city in two thousand and sixteen has been has been quite dark and in some cases kind of an angry mood but I think we are reaching I don’t think we’ve reached the very worst of it yet with the labor market. I do think the unemployment rate is going to climb a little bit higher into early twenty’s seventeen the way these economic cycles work when oil prices started to turn down where it was until about eight months. The fact that Congress on one point started to rise there was a lag going into the recession coming out of the recession and twenty seventeen and by the way our expectation of coming out is very very modest growth but coming out of the recession in two thousand and seventeen. We think the labor market will also play in other words we’re likely to see it climb a bit higher before it stabilizes from somewhere around nine and a half or ten percent or were offered up and then gradually start to improve after about. So we’ve seen the worst of it. We think in the energy sector but for Alberta the some macro economy and for the labor market. We think we have a few more months of tough sledding here before things stabilize and start to move before I start talking. There are some sectors in the province. Pardon me. There are some sectors in the province second T.V. view quite well and we think that this is where the modest growth is going to come from in. Seventeen. It’s not going to come from the petroleum sector but we do think we will see some continued growth in sectors like Egger culture neighbor food forestry all of that one comes with Macau the help talked about and tourism which is probably set for another record here and twenty seven thousand now we have to understand forestry agriculture tourism. These are the second third and fourth largest industries but even taken as a group they are more by the petroleum industry. I mean it’s not even close. How far they trail behind. Nonetheless they do provide some some balance and some diversity and those are the sectors that are growing right now. Now the cabinet with the forestry sector and forestry much more important for our communities and sort of the West and Northern Africa. But the cabinet. There is the software lumber agreement with the United States has expired. There is no agreement in place and expired over a year ago and now with the new with ministration coming into the White House. You may have heard there was an election about a month ago and some interesting changes on the way but it’s anyone’s guess. In fact how that softwood lumber agreement is going to be negotiated. But I would I would suggest that on balance it’s probably bad news for the forestry sector in our fantastic course with Mr Trump being more operational they were there in dollar terms I don’t know that’s a good question and it’s not it’s not large especially I get compared to the petroleum sector it’s it’s miniscule. I mean it’s much more B.C. but there are there are communities that grab her Peace River Rocky Mountain House there’s a swath of communities along the western and northern fringe where it is an important driver. So I wouldn’t I wouldn’t consider it. You know a large industry but it is one of those base resource industries and it’s one of the industries by the. That tends to do better when oil prices are weak because the forestry sector keeps for labor almost directly with a lot of those oil and gas providers produce so it’s not huge but it is it is still a base industry that does help provide some diversity. Yeah. So the hockey season you want to be out there but playing back to the culture was one of them is a pretty useless for the cows will need to replace just need them but now as a warning of these orders are you talking about the bowing to Bergamo says yes yeah. This isn’t good news at all. I would say at the present. It’s not a catastrophe because it’s still contained but we don’t know I mean it’s already spread more than two to one branch and I think the last count is ten thousand have to be put down. So that’s not good news at all and we’ll have to watch the story to see how it evolves. If it does turn into a bigger issue and it eventually leads to perhaps a closure or a ban on exports. It’s not at that point yet but it’s not to say I couldn’t get their souls I’m quite sure for them but yeah it’s and it’s not it’s not good news for the cattle. So one more thing. What I think about that the better business and agriculture. So we can think about traditional agriculture is how we can know those are the three kind of cattle prices wheat prices are kind of weak right now and although it’s it’s it’s kind of OK wasn’t a fantastic product here in Alberta depending on where you are especially around Edmonton and central orders to where they had a hard time getting their crops are better conditions in southern Alberta. It’s always kind of money even for our poor farmers that way but we’re more optimistic these days is in the opportunities around Small me shagger food producers they’ve actually been doing really really well and I think there are sort of. Capitalizing on a trend around more a growing consumer demand for locally produced goods in some cases organic foods in all cases smaller meat production where there is no better information about the food in other words trends consumer trends around food are moving away from highly processed manufactured food succumbing to big factories and Mississauga and they’re moving more towards the niche locally produced players and I think Alberta is capitalizing on that now we have to you know keep in mind it’s still a very very small and organic honey production in fact the hour this morning was about and it’s increased seven fold thirty years and over down. I’ve worked supporting it. So but you know seventy million dollars in honey does not start to replace you know crude oil as a drive her in this economy but to starts to help when you start to see you know thousands of Agra who producers all each players all at the local small low level but it does start to provide more of that first of the income and industrial mix products. So just to wrap up and then I’ll stop talking turn it over to you our forecast our most recent forecast came out November second and we’re now calling for a real G.D.P. growth of two point one percent in two thousand and seventeen about half a percent of that comes from the rebuilding for me which is not the best kind of G.D.P. that you would like to see because we’re really just rebuilding to get to where we work but nonetheless that will provide or that will involve some spending and some some boost to the G.D.P. in two thousand and seventeen and the other one and a half percent comes from those other sectors so we talked about Agra Foods tourism up some forestry. You know none of that growth there. The energy sector does not yet make any contribution to G.D.P. growth in two thousand and seventeen. But on the bright side it’s no longer an says a drag pushing over a bit into truck. So two point one percent that is I guess good news we think that technically the recession will end next year but again elevated unemployment rate for a lot of people. The fact that the economy is now growing again will be cold comfort. It will still feel pretty recession with an unemployment rate of around nine or higher percent. So with that I’ll turn it over to you if you have a question observation of your own. Yes What’s so well it depends on the year prior to the oil price downturn it was at about twenty five percent. So I don’t actually know what it is going to be in two thousand and sixteen. I mean we’re still twenty sixteen but my guess is it will be somewhere closer to about ten or twelve percent that’s only a guess like roughly where it was enough to really direct threats to all the other things that struck an industry manufacturing which you know where it is largely refining of energy products. That’s all kind of separate so that twenty five percent two years ago or maybe ten or twelve percent now that it’s just oil and gas production sale time I actually don’t know what that is probably someone some estimates have been made but you know you don’t have to it’s. It’s hard to find anyone in this province who is not directly or at least one degree of separation away from the energy sector. You know even financial services. You know like to be worked back to by the energy sector. We have a lot of clients who are energy sector providers and in business services all of those drilling contractors water hauler they’re all considered as business services when stats can be calculates the P.D.P. but there are business services that feed directly into the energy sector so they really had an extension of it. So once you start to count all of that even the restaurants downtown Calgary you know while they’re full of oil and gas for a cocktail hour or so in that respect those those particular restaurant to really kind of the heart of the industry to go for that ten year green ten years might be a bit big yeah. Several years. You know and I always caution people not to get too worked up about this is this is a typical powder. I’m going to carry nine hundred eighty nine and at that time Kalra had just gone through another building boom and they were all sitting empty. You know when this happens you know six here is the big and serious highly actually work or not for profit at the time in the early one nine hundred ninety S. and we had fantastic work with Rob We’ve had plastic office space and what this can tear a tower. I mean this is way too much as a brand building way too nice a space for it. Scrappy. Not probably work but it was donated office space and we just had to pay the heat the lights and it was a charitable donation for whoever held the lease on that. So you know you see the stuff in time and time again. This time around. Yeah twenty five percent or even those towers it’s going to fall higher. It’s more severe than other downturns. But this is this is a normal cycle. What it will be a little push on the rigs or the rents. On that space which three years ago. I mean companies from outside of oil and gas they would have looked at Calgary because office space was just too expensive and now it’s all on sale. I mean you get some really neat space so that helps you know promote more diversity that way but it is it is going to be rough for the leaseholders on the space ship so much of the port has not been flipped over on doing good and we know that we are the show here was not good for so many cuts over with for people out there so can you just explain how do you see this because this is a minute. Exam before anybody of us would like to figure out what has to go. So what are the kind of fall for this perfectly of course how they can for the away from the oil short because we just of these are largest. Robin and gas shores and this is how we want to put it on the street you know it was not stand it was just so how we move how they would like what sources they get the car if they were able to get like on other other other other kinds of trade shows or other sorts of tourism work. Well that’s a good question. I don’t know I have to make you refer to someone in the travel and tourism industry the ones who actually work on trying to advertise the gallery and sure of these big groups. I do know that our Rotary International is Calgary it’s now exploring making another bid to have rotary come the very last international one in Calgary once I think in the ninety’s and it was the single largest bench tourism forecast ever. Still I mean by anything else. So there. Looking at it another big sometime in the I think in twenty twenty or beyond. So there seems like doubt but the outside of the energy sector if you’re looking at the different industries. I don’t know exactly how the tourism. You know Calgary conventions tourism convention how they would go about doing that there are other opportunities. Oh well the Canadian dollar. Well it has been moving sort of lockstep with oil prices to some degree but the bigger influence I think on the comedian dollar will be any surprise surprise from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Now they’re largely expected to raise rates next week. I think it is a research interest rates in the United States or a surprise move or even a statement by the Bank of Canada which is not expected to raise rates for a long long time to cover and that’s why the Canadian dollar is no lower than than its traditional value about eighty to eighty three cents right now it’s lower than that because the markets are anticipating that rates in the states are going to go out and they’re not going to go up in Canada in that time. Yes. So if there was a surprise move or even you know say the benefit Canada loses all sense. Tomorrow it makes a speech saying we’re going to raise rates in January and catching markets you know are they’re not going to do that by the way but if they did do that. Well that would you know really drive the comedian dollar up some who are if there was another really dramatic change in the oil prices or maybe some of those other prices a little more and then yeah OK I’ll stay out here the other issue being everything. Like oh my goodness. Suddenly Yeah. So we’re talking presidential real yes officer right. You know actually I mean we’re two years into a recession that real estate prices. I was in prices have been remarkably stable. I would not have expected them to be stable as they are certain segments of the market especially here in Calgary the condo market is down and the ten million dollar properties are down but that’s because they have a there’s a thinner market for those buyers anyway and they built a condos. But even those I mean condo prices and in downtown Calgary. There are boat you know five or ten percent but those single be touched bungalows that kind of mid range. They haven’t even really much at all. They’re down maybe two or three percent in Edmonton they’re not even down at all so adamant and it’s not getting hit as bad as calories in this downturn and I think it’s because going into the recession. Both cities real estate markets were very healthy balance. It’s not like we were going into a recession with a bubble already built built in and that would have been the case back in two thousand and six two thousand and seven. Then you could see house prices in that five percent or so are coming out of it. I don’t see a lot of growth in housing prices and twenty seventeen. But you know you could also imagine a situation where it becomes clear to everybody that OK the downturn in the energy sector is behind us oil prices are back above fifty. We have some pipelines in place the group shoots of optimism start coming back and then you could start to see that spillover effect. What’s driven Vancouver’s real estate which is foreign buyers. You know then you can start to see them stepping up trying those already experience and you know car is only an hour flight from Vancouver so you could start to see some improvement real estate buying because of that importance. But I think it’ll be a while yet before. Calgarians are starting to feel comfortable enough to start beating up on was because I don’t know when the rates are going to be. I know it’s a possibility. It’s a possibility. Sure yeah I mean we could see you know lower prices in the first quarter of the year which is traditionally a lower buying season by the time anyway. So yeah. Depending on the exact property that you’re looking at it’s possible for sure but I wouldn’t see you know I wouldn’t see another five percent drop out of. Oh oh well I guess when we think about that oil price I’m I’m referencing that US dollar West Texas Intermediate range price as one of the prices. You know there is Brant prices for Europe and Asia but that W T I. Prices mostly influenced by well two basic game supplying demand we think demand will continue to grow modestly. I mean will conditions start looking slightly better than they were a year ago especially in the United States right now with the new profit ministration coming in cuts to taxes spending on the structure that’s expected to have a stimulative effect on the U.S. probably energy consumption. So we think demand is going to be at least a modest positive for the price but then the other bigger issue has been supply and that’s where I mean over the last three years we’ve seen by really come on to the market and that’s what’s driven prices so supply. Then again it gets back to those two things. OPEC what OPEC going to do is OPEC really going to agree to these supply limits are they really going to hang together because Mr Putin and Russia are going to cooperate. Sounds like I mean from their most recent talks it sounds like yeah they’re going to agree to withhold some supply and that’s a positive price but we don’t know with OPEC precisely I mean like I said earlier they could meet tomorrow and decide no we’re struck on that whole agreement and you know well prices could fall back down with more supply but probably the single biggest factor right now for that town on oil prices and in our estimation is that is the U.S. shale oil because under no scenario does that go away for a while its technological advances under a lot of the oil in the United States. They keep finding more oil a big discovery in Texas. What happened to this explorer all of Texas already I mean now you’re finding this but it’s because of the new the new shale technologies that they’re there. Now even if you extract oil reserves. So those are the two big things three years old this one is not really like three years. Yes All right. All right. All right last word yes. You’re getting it and you’re absolutely right. And this question of diversity comes up all but the question that’s never answered it was the word we need to go first. By This is where the problem was we need the provincial government to say the energy sector it’s hard it’s hard to say if there’s a profit motivation to do a business will buy person if there’s not a profit motive how we meet that pronoun. How do we make this happen. And this is not that we’ve been trying for forty years and I think really well maybe we should always look at the ones. Take a look at how life was right. You were right all right. If you say no they just really sustain this true. Here’s my wife three years. Yeah yeah yeah yeah probably. Back inside those plates where they didn’t touch. The well that’s a good question. I don’t know if I’m the best one to answer. I would find it hard to believe that there would be a slew of outside capital coming in simply the amount of investment to be made. It’s going to be quite small. At least compared to where it was three or four years ago where we did see a lot. So I guess increases in capital spending are going to be pretty marginal I think the combined seventy but I don’t think it’s going to meet the level of the cycle. But other people in the industry might have more knowledge that. Well there’s a lot of things actually favor of tourism candidate over every one of them of course it’s the other it’s the U.S. economy’s doing well the point six percent unemployment. They’re not every one of us doing well but by and large the economy it’s kind of back on its feet and that for most tourists tourism especially China. I think there’s a lot of scope for expand there. We hope that the name of the airline from Beijing has a nonstop calorie there’s a lot of you know consumer dollars trying to get down there. I think more of them are going to be looking for those experienced kinds of trouble and I think what this is about. Now the other thing that starts to place. Twenty six calling this magazine. There was some trouble website and I don’t know if you’re probably right. The front cover of the twenty best place for all this point except by the city. I mean this is National Geographic and it’s radio so I mean all of that helps for sure in the twenty fifteen twenty six consecutive years in a row of record tourism business and I think twenty seventeen now is the new Y Y C. I know comedy right now. I don’t see why we just can’t disprove everything you know really just true sets every year but you never know. Every everybody else. Great pressure and interest obviously somebody in the movie more so there is going to be a big push from the government industry for today and I think you’re smart people but I’m also interested in what they don’t know better when it’s. Already here so far I don’t think we meet your ratings right now. So I think there’s a lot of those poster children for their technology for free from free trade very well. Yeah there. I mean you can always there really last dance where you are sitting there a shower while I was terminal is also not true but I mean you’re sitting senator I’m not really in will be the player and that it really is the Chinese word technology but it requires leadership three years old prove it’s right not to do that you know I’m just saying you know what people are afraid that there’s a lot of very old players throughout all this for three years. All right. All right all right. I don’t know it’s a great group. Oh this theory was here in this file here a lot of it right. So I just call home.
Welcome to with Wael the ultimate Show .
Almost all of us will present and at the end of our presentation. We will not be able to know if we really engage our audience or we will basically they’ve heard our audience a way. Many of us will say I did my best. I had lots of content. I taught. All my knowledge but the audience did not really
engage with me and audience did not get me.
Did not join my program or did not join my. It were a mailing list or they did not take actions I didn’t get called back up as a percentage.
So the question is what’s wrong with the presentation because if anybody. And and everybody stand over there. And present you all must have at least one in the audience call you back or come back and ask your question. So the question is why the audience are not here for you.
So my question to you
is what do you do in your presentation.
Audience will engage with
a good content
audience will engage engage with good sic which. Audience will engage with a speaker who will be
dynamic enough and provide the right material in the right way so you can be able to talk to them. So what is the top of challenges for your presentations. Why your presentation did not work.
My name is A while back that we have been professor and
and structure. Mark Terence sales from the stage specialist and I’m here to share with you. The secrets I have
on how to engage my audience so I can achieve results by the end of my presentation. I have been around for a one thousand nine hundred ninety two and. I during the years I was able to
collect and figure out
a few tips. And a few things which will work for me and work for anybody. And from my education my my practice my experience. I developed a system which is. I cannot tell you it will guarantee
a ninety percent engagement which is I can as a matter of fact because whenever I apply my sequences and my systems and my in my classes and my audience usually. It is not hundred percent engaging is about ninety percent engaging. But I would guarantee if you start applying this tool you will immediately have results and you will immediately have engagement and more audience will come to
join your program or ask you follow up question where you can sell or do
help them with your program.
If they want to ask you what is the top challenges for you to
provide an engaging sequence out there in
your fear and your ego
confidence and your trust that what you know is better. Which is not necessarily true
will be the main
number three challenge you have because many of. We have an eagle many of us will say you know I want to do a contant I want to do a demo I want to do I want to do but. You never ask yourself what what what about the other side. I did have one of my clients his.
Healer and he was always feeling good about his methods and the sequence. He was feeling good about his is missing. He was feeling good about what he can do for his crimes. So he will always stand and talk about what exactly is doing.
He wandered around for about two years and a year and a half to two years and he usually have between two to four clients a month
I met him and I present to him what I can do for him and he he said like this my last resources let me give it a try.
You are now listening to which way I’ll be ultimate show.
modify and I suggest some of the patient what he’s doing for example he does not talk at all about his own program and his own techniques. He would converse most to moderate clients from his audience and it when he was very resistant he did not like it.
It took him five weeks to be convinced to try and in the first two weeks after that he was able to conclude between seven to nine clients on his working days which means
he had roughly more than twenty plus Comodo new clients a week.
So as a part time here there who’s looking at these numbers. He made a decision to move for out from his full time job and just focus on healing.
So if you would your figure ego and you’re a confidence and you’re feeling. That what you know is good and you try to apply some other tools when you’re stuck. It’s maybe the way
to Day In particular I was in IP presentation and the presenter wanted to do. I’d like them all and she was so concerned about so many
things which can go wrong. So I step down and I ask you know what you why do you want to do them. What is the reason for you to do for me and them. You know that you don’t do a demo because or you must not like my advice you must not do them. It’s not because everything will go around assembly if you have one thousand minutes to twenty minutes to ninety minutes presentation. How many of us who are really learned something from seeing a flashy screams. Even when we have three hours working groups for hours working groups and each one has its own computer which is on interface. And is trying to fix a problem. Not everybody in the room will follow and understand what the reason for us having a demo or having a life hands on session. So if you want to do a demo on your presentation. You have to be careful because there is no need for a demo I.E. went into so many of these financial advisor presentations and investors and sister to shoe all of the Steve’s tables having stock and numbers and how the stocks are changing and what the high performance companies and what their strategy is I stop there and that’s Ponsonby question what is in it for me why you show me the stables as a matter of fact if I am hiring you as a financial advisor or investors of my behalf. I am hiring you so you can take care of these details and these tables so I don’t have to see them. So if you come and say I will I will use your money and this is a team as you have to say you have basically defeating the point. So I went in and
I want to say that you need to value what you get what you give your audience every single second in your audience. It must to have an evolving procedures toward your journey or your program. You never go and just do the stuff because you feel it’s cool coming back to the demo. I even asked some of the partner of this particular individual which is for just a sec of
upset anybody. I didn’t want to say Who was she. But who was he. But I spoke to store three of her partners on or her colleagues in the business and each one was surprised why you cannot give it. Imma be able to learn from them and I say wait a minute wait a minute. People will never learn from them at them or is has no
place in an introduction presentation or an educational presentation at them as a filler that you want to tell everybody
that I am not here to give you more value other value is done now we have to see how it works if you are telling me what the valley on the other Use your business what it was your system. Why do I need to hire you. He would ensure me how to do it as a matter of fact when we talk about presentations. We always say you have to answer that five W.’s and this W. as I say I was selected not because my first name is why all this deputies are selected because it’s how people runs a business you explain the five Ws you never show the help at them and it shows how if you show a demo it means you show me how what you’re supposed to be a keep secret. Now if I move away from this point and say OK so what about if the demo will fail for any reason Internet blockage server down some. Saying ground. I don’t know any of these reasons will make you look like a fool if you can show me a demo which is connecting on different servers and you say I will show you now the demo and this is there was not work.
You are now listening to with my L.B. ultimate show.
It means you are not good.
So when you try to show them as you have to be careful there was no place in any presentation demo has a place only in working sessions and you have to figure out how we can do it so. The second chorus sing I learn also is.
The second the challenge they have in my in this particular presentation I can share with you is you don’t take time.
You don’t take advantage of don’t take time. You don’t move. You are slowing moving move or if somebody will come and say I am showing you a sequence that or a message elegy to present to engage your audience and make you rock Blackstar Usually we are voices particular individuals when you have all these individuals and you take time to fix your presentation and the first explosion Titian have. You visited spreading their message out and the word out that you are not good.
You are indeed harming yourself and your business and instead of moving into an area where you are trying to rock as a star. If you are harming your business.
Don’t blame others and yourself if you gave two or three or four different presentations and all of them are not performing are not good. What what you will know about you. The see another performer. So what will happen in your next and after for the presentation. When you have individuals coming in. If you don’t engage in. Audiences audience will not come back. And this what you don’t understand
you need to make sure that you don’t consume your if real presence here to
reduce and damage your business if I say the second this challenge for presenter to finish their presentation is they don’t take time. They don’t take actions they don’t take actions on a time and there I can tell you one thing. If you don’t take an action to fix your presentation as soon as you have been told You don’t care if you don’t take actions now what will happen he don’t care about your business your business will not perform. You have to give a chance you have to listen to others. Otherwise it will not work. So
that last challenge for present or is
the present of themselves.
There’s other themselves are bounded by their ego the other day there was a marketing company which is amazingly interesting because when you see a marketing company. It’s trying to sell their own product as they try to teach we have to market and the main presenters are for more than one hour reading a script from his i Phone. I’m glad that you have an i Phone this what I can tell you I love the fact is you have an i Phone and my question to you is why you don’t have an i Phone seven. Why do you have an i Phone as an i Phone seven. If you are the top notch guys the market. You are now listening to with my L.B. ultimate show.
I never seen a presenter who just said that there is a script. And if the script will come because they say oh yeah I don’t want to miss anything from the government who cares about the government. It’s all about engagement. If you don’t know how to market if you I don’t understand how you communicate and how you market at present dish and how it comes you market your business as a. Company
you have to be Kerik careful you have to take care of the audience you have to tell the audience what they need to know they have to engage with you. Everything is an engagement. There is nothing
on education. Nothing on sales if you don’t engage me it cannot educate me is so central if you don’t understand this concept. You should not be on the stage. So when you come and say No no I want to use this because I forgot forget what
evilness wants to use
not they’re not bored because they forgot they forgot what
if you cannot know what is’ your present ation is not a society if you cannot talk about your presentation without having notes. It means you are not expert. Why would I have why when I was I listen to you. Why do you have a script. Oh please read the script and I can read it I don’t have to read English.
Oh you know what if I don’t know how to read English I will find somebody who can read it for me
engaging is not about script engaging is not about presence in gauge it is not about what you can do and what you can say engaging it’s a hard connection between and you and the audience. If you want to learn how to do the hard connection. Let me know I can show you
we have not. We had we have not been born
with engagement skills.
We have we did not but we were not born with
engaging sequences. We learned this tool this too. The skulls are level. The idea of having somebody was a Christmas to engage. I’m sorry. There is not such a thing this Christmas is resultant af. Lots of training and lots of process which is can happen at any time of your age and your career to make you the focus. Point is a focal point to make you engage with others. So
if you listen to this particular but cast.
I would areas you connect with me I will show you I will show you the minimum stuff you have to do you have to start to move away. We are the first enemy is in for you as present or you are someone was worrying about the too much let it go let the presentation go from your body let it go away. Give it to us. Don’t hold it back. Don’t try to articulate it right. I have been asked so many questions. How do I engage when I have an accent.
I have I And that is that their size one time when I was standing there in the front of a new audience for me and I said Do you really notice you have an accent. This is not we enjoy what you’re saying.
So accent is not a barrier your knowledge is not a barrier your communication is not a barrier. You are what you say is not a barrier your visual image visuals are not a barrier the barrier is you you are someone who elect to do. Interesting and acceptable tasks and statements from the stage which shut us down. I wasn’t I want to share with you. The story because it was very interesting. There was this enterprise she sold like her business for multi million dollars and she was coming and talk about how great she was doing and her journey away from her journey is wrong because you don’t stand there and tell and to pronounce that it’s Duff it’s difficult. You shouldn’t do it. I would not do it if I have a choice because this is our zone messages out there and the printer ship is fun and the printer ship is something you have to love doing it. You have to live and it. If you don’t live and if you don’t do it. That’s it. But our way from this point this particular individual stand up and just give us like forty minutes or seven minutes of stuff I would put the stuff because. There was no structure whatsoever and to be honest with you. I’m not sure why she’s on the stage. If you make multi-million dollar and you stand on the stage you have to be that you have to train yourself have to stand up to what sequences are you don’t stand on the stage because you are a successful whatever
it just it does make sense. There are so many speakers. I would say that are not so much at the printer but engaged as are so many people who made so much money and they don’t they don’t stand on the stage because they don’t know the art and science of it so she is standing right there.
Everything was done was wrong she has a microphone it was not right. This big voice was not right. The monotone she has was just so annoying all the stories she has assumed much details very long not engaging I said What is that. But before I really was surprised I have to listen to the following. She said Oh OK guys with a minute. I have to review my notes and you know what. And it’s exactly something she said from the state. I’m not good in the repairing the speeches. I would call my you know my my swords in a sticky and I started I glued them to this particular page
and sure there’s a page. So I’m not sure why you want to share with me that you have slobby. If I am having as you might engage with you as you might have a respect was for evil. Why is the value of you showing me the just loving slobby one who does not repaired Well why do I need to see that. Why did you tell me you don’t know as you that the only one who has a contest and the only one who has a content and the only one who know what you are teaching is Will is YOU not me. So if you stand and talk and say something which was not complete. Nobody cares because we will not know till you make a full disclosure and. The minute you make a full disclosure what could happen.
You are now listening to with my L.B. ultimate show. The minute you make a full disclosure I will not be able to connect with you because I’m not here. I’m here to see a role models. I am here to see individuals who devoted enough time to prepare for themselves to come to present in front of me if I devote enough time as an audience as a speaker as an audience or a guest to come to park my car and they my car which is not free. I pay my car parking fees and then I come and I go to Europe you own your own space edition and I climb the stairs and I take the elevator and I have to sit there and do it for you for YOU COME TO SEE I’M NOT READY by showing Misa sticky pads and then are you message guys out that you message. If you don’t understand the art of engaging connectors me get this together I’m offering it to you for no cost. Let me know you want to invite me for a coffee I will set you up for half an hour to an hour and I will show you the easy steps a sequence which can get you engage with your audience. If you have Siri or more in the room as a matter of fact if you have even one in a room. If you understand the psychology this logics Why do people come to here to listen to you. Not even buy but is different story but is different structure but is different. Six sequence. If you want to understand why do we sit and listen till
you should talk save your business. Leave your business alone. Leave your business. Where
is neutral right now don’t damage it don’t come and say I want to do this. I want to do that. I want to speak. Why didn’t I have to tuck and one more is one more thing I want to do before I close a particular but cast many of us will go and collect our friends you know
if I am broke
who is who are my friends
and the videos what broke like me
if I’m H Who are my friends people who are rich like me. So when you collect everybody in your organization and you say yeah we are a start up company and they want to present and we are doing just present ation let’s let me let’s help me and let me rehearse on your presentation.
You are presenting in front of the wrong audience because your partners in the company are people who work for you and the company your friends. I’m not your audience. I’m not your buyers. Moreover it’s one of them. He never present before because if one of them has a better presentation skills and you most likely as enter Pranav used to get at them
is OK now you guys you have a good the skills and you understand the audience. So why you don’t present on my behalf.
So the fact is none of them is presenting and you are the only one and you brand. It brings the guys who don’t present don’t understand selling from the stage or selling from a platform or presenting from a platform
give you feedback
I can tell you one thing. This is we call it a blind leading the blind
blind individuals don’t understand the business don’t understand how to type don’t understand how to speak and what they do they try
and I have to use a word or try here. They try their best
to get you behind because I don’t understand. When someone rang his family and say I’m giving have this presentation tomorrow. Let me show you what I would present
his family will cheer out for him will say you know what good that you are the good that you know my husband you know his wife will say my husband you look awesome. Because none of this individuals what actually presenting this or your family
and even you can say I was given this example to there somebody said all but my own my but my family is a businessman is a business man and to pronounce it
with a minute or so of these are successful people why you are not working with them
the story is not to present in front of somebody who will
schmoozy Oh and say you are great. The story is you present in front of somebody who understand how the message can get across
the story is to present in front of the coach who understand the presentation how it works if any coach will tell you you start with your title and you start with your who you are and your mission and your various
fire this coach. I’m telling you fire. If you want to achieve results fire this coach if any present present or coach will say you want your presentation title followed by your man as in the very first right.
You have must fire this coach he just not the way it works. Nobody cares about your name. Nobody cares about your value nobody cares about your mission. Nobody cares about your wife. They don’t care is only about this information a certain point when they understand how strong you are and they see your market presence and then the stand. What that you can to give it to me.
Thank you for listening to went way out the ultimate shell. The very first step. I gave to anybody in this business. If you have a coach or a trainer or a mentor whoever will ask you to want your presentation with a title up front with your name and articulate your value and what you do for life.
I would tell you fire the fire this coach. I want to share with your story. I have business coaches that everybody everybody needs stage he would have coaches and you know what if somebody will tell you I don’t have coaches
you know you don’t don’t don’t really work with them because if you don’t have coach means you don’t develop yourself. You need some other set of eyes of professional eyes to evaluate what you do. If you don’t have coaches don’t work with you don’t work with anybody not have coach. And if I’m not
I don’t feel comfort to share with you who are my coaches there is a problem he has because so if you work with somebody. So I have my two coaches and
I as everybody you know like what is the business will start to show good the growing habit. You’re always try to bring your coaches to life seminars and say Can you show me how I can do better. So this particular coach It took me to a specific point. And now I’m ready to go to the next level.
So I sat there and I gave my present ation my two coaches came and said on a different drive a discussion. It was great. I learned a lot very engaging
I have two recommendations for you. So what he said why you should start with your title and this is the start was used by you or
I said. The squidge but why
they could not justify
and this is the exact moment I stop interacting with these coaches full stop. Why because when I tell you I don’t care about who you are till I know what VERY I will get from you
if you start with your title with your name. Nobody cares. Nobody cares about your value. I only care. Once I made a decision in my unconscious mind after working with you. So
if you are someone you are someone first enemy for your presentation. You are the one whose first you are the one who is doing all of this mystics. You are the one who will come and say I am not ready. I need this showers I need this piece of paper. I need a Tele Promp a.
if you cannot be more eyes your presentation let me know there are techniques
visualization techniques that still allows you to look in front of your client in their deep eyes and then wise what you want to talk about as a matter of fact that that’s technique of this particular methodology is will get you to the level that you can remember word by word
for ninety minutes without the rising anything at work these techniques valid. It takes about two hours to learn to stick nick it takes about maybe two three hours
to implement them to master twenty minute presentation
and if you want to be the masters of it. It may take a few rehearsals. So wasn’t three four days you should be able to master your signature presentation and you must have only one presentation.
If you want to engage me was any of your material. If you want to get me to sign up. Or give you part of my business you must have one presentation and only one. So I’m summarizing here what you have
and what I have been talking about is I was give you my view on my party of on the challenges which is stand between you and your audience
and the first number three challenges your ego and fear. Number two challenges you don’t have it don’t take actions of time and number one it challenges you. This is a while but are we
with you. I have the name of my program.
And as I said click on the link below. If you need to connect with me so I can get yo
assessment tools to show you what you can do with your presentation or you can e-mail me at info@withwael
looking forward for your feedback. Thank you
Welcome to with Wael – the ultimate show.
Your fire of desire. It’s part of your mindset
you are the one
who brought your fire up or what YOU FOR done. I have been around for so long and I have been seeing so many different individuals who will decide to move in a way or another.
And once they make a decision. They are the one who doubt their decision to move back and move forward. Their desires to win is function of how much they want to go against fear we call it play NOT to lose
only play to win and there is also another play. Which is you play not to lose? or you play to win. The play to when it’s an action which are programmed in your brain when you start to when you don’t look at obstacles you don’t look at barriers you don’t look at what can hold you back. You figure out you find a way you can move forward take actions and move outside your comfort zone under start to be vulnerable exposed.
Maybe scared but not feared. So you don’t have a fear
If you play too when it’s a long tour is a long term play. When people do play to win. They were actually takes all the challenges and move forward. And there’s no outcome other than winning. Today I had won I had to play to when I did what this take. So I can get my issues told in the way I would like I started first by defining what’s my winning and then I figure out a strategy to achieve this winning the question is did you think that I was a nice guy. Definitely in the view of others. I was not the nice guy.
I was the guy who was aggressively trying to achieve an actual And I was the guy I was pushing pushing forward in a every single way without any doubt in my life that I should be able to achieve this particular winning status. When you play to when it’s a mentality which make you.
I want to be frank with you if I have to reduce friends you can lows. Because they are not really your friends they are just friends to keep you back with them so they are not very looking forward for you to when you can lose friends you can lose lovers you can lose family members because the minute everybody will show. Uncomforted, you are moving forward. They try to pull you back.
The reason for them to believe is the reason for them to feel comfort when you play too when it’s an attitude. It’s a mindset. It’s your brain which Bush you forward towards the big game for the big play towards a big win. And isn’t dark. It’s reality. When I play not to lose. It’s a different mindset. It’s a mindset where how to make it safe. How to walk away with the least amount of losses.
Not the maximum when I can have I can ship share with you. Few strategies and few techniques and several stories hundreds of stories or a decision to play not to lose. It’s a sign of people life because I would say I’m comfort where I am I don’t want to play to when I don’t want to ask it. I don’t want to be persistent. I don’t want to push hard. I don’t want to get outside my comfort zone. I would like to just to win. At a level which is limited. I call it limited when. I play not to lose
it’s deadly approach. I would never recommend anybody try to play not to lose play not to lose the alternative of losing playing not to lose is to try to compromise. What you want to do. So you don’t lose what you want to do. Play not to lose it’s a way that you don’t achieve you don’t push hard you don’t push forward. And what will happen after that. as you try to make it safe your mindset is are not to lose. It’s a mindset what you give you in a status coat. Let me give you an example
if you are doing good in your life and you work and suddenly you can you have the opportunity of doing some other something else. I.E. they let you go. They ask you not to come here again. So the question now is you want to play to win or you want to play to lose majority of us will say oh yeah let’s wait till we get similar job or different places because we don’t want to lose our. Experience. Very few of us will say no, I want to play to win.
I want to move forward to be able to push more and to push hard. So I can change what I was doing in order to win in my life. So you have to define Also when it in your life winning in your life. It’s a different nation. Which you have to sit and figure it out first. Do you when when you can be your belt or do you when when you achieve specific status. Do you when when you have a high risk life not stable income was a potential of very high return or do you when when you have a stable life and it just goes out like a government based employee who basically get what they get to go to do what they do and that’s it. And these are life. Several individuals I meet on a regular basis. Now that they want to play not to lose they want to play it safe. They want to wait.
They want to live on employment insurance and different source of social income so they don’t change what they have been doing because they’re afraid. They’re afraid. If they when they wouldn’t do they wouldn’t know what to do. I and particularly this an individual and as you know I don’t like to break the confidentiality and density of some people close to my heart because everybody here is close to my heart. So someone I met and I said you know why you don’t change what you are doing to this particular activities and this will get you a better income and you can move forward. They made it question he said. So what I would tell my family
I don’t have a job. So if I do this particular career in or if I do. This particular up opportunity is not a job so we actually work who shook. Who is my employer sits you. He said no I can’t I have to go back and tell them I work for somebody. So I love this. What do you mean what the manual for somebody. Why you don’t work for yourself why you don’t start what you can do. There’s a new knowledge base for your subject matter expert based on what you know. So you can move forward. So or stop and say no I can’t I have to work for somebody.
You are now listening to with way out the ultimate shell. But if we are been programmed not to lose. We have been programmed not to risk it. We aren’t with Brawn not to touch it. When we start early on in our life. We will tell you Oh it’s hard. Don’t touch. Oh it’s called Don’t touch you know what you have to this don’t do this don’t do this don’t do this.
OK Can you tell me what to do when you think about not doing it. You play to lose not to lose when you think about don’t actually what you want to achieve. Don’t change because you don’t feel comfort it don’t know. When you don’t know you play not to lose. So
I don’t know I thought about the sky having this particular topic today because I always play to win and not only when I always play to win big. And when it’s all or not which is my attitude. If you play well at all or not it’s a different attitude I call it the no loss. Nothing to lose game you know play without anything to lose. Can you would it all in. I’m not talking about gambling of the what our life. Can you have. The challenge and the change to say I would. All in I will move forward to a new pass in my life. When we look at individuals who changed our lives by a separation or divorce or just a change was a live was this people see a you know what we are fed up.
We want to just play to win big who want to just move on. We want to put all in to a different life. Can you have this attitude toward your work toward your profession toward your legacy to word your what you do and I’m sure to have income in. This particular attitude is not really. People when they play not to lose. They are more conservative they want to be an employee they want to be somebody who accept a lower level of winning because they want to play not to lose. I’m the guy who allows you to define and when and to guide you to win and win big. When bigger than what you can dream. And this is not. Just a simple talk. This is our strategies and messages and stuff I make you know stuff which can make you happy. This stuff which can make you happy is when you identify this year is this tough and what you need to do this. What Get in get you moving your life.
It’s never been about how do you live or why do you live is a beer is about what do you want to live in. You live in a winning status in a winning mindset. You know what’s Are you winning goals. If you know what are you winning goals. Let’s just build together their winning brain and the winning mindset from the winning mindset we can do so many so much and all of them is to win win big win here wish when Babe and my dream. Can I do it. My answer is yes you can do it. Let’s work together. If you want to when in your life if you play to win not to lose. And you play to that and not to play to not to lose. You should get hold of me and email me at Info to win your brand dot com. And I should be able to describe to you what can you do when you play to win not to play not to lose
and I hope you enjoy this particular but cast and looking forward to meet you in the following one. Thank you
thank you for listening,
For more information. Check out www.WithWael.com